2022 Planning: Between expectations and uncertainties

Reading time: 10 minutes

Vaccination represents optimism and indicates that the next year will bring better opportunities for Business. Business planning, however, requires caution, rigorous analysis and flexibility.

Positive prospects for the year 2022 should be considered rationally in planning
business. There is an enthusiasm promoted by the advance of vaccination and the gradual reopening of activities economic, but it is necessary to carefully analyze the aspects that sustain expectations.

Professor at the Álvares Penteado School of Commerce Foundation (Fecap), Edson Barbero, assesses that the scenario will depend a lot on the sector in which the company operates, tending to favor, mainly, businesses that more depend on the movement of people, such as tourism, restaurants, bars and part of the trade. However, even in these cases, entrepreneurs and managers need to build the perception of how the market will react.
“The main source of knowledge is the empathetic dialogue with customers,” says Barbero. “In general, 2022 it will be a return, but the scenario is still uncertain”, he ponders. The articulation with all stakeholders (in addition to customers, suppliers, employees and investors, for example) will bring many relevant answers about aspects such as supply chain, team management, hiring needs, among other points, for the 2022 planning.

The plans need to contemplate the evolution process in relation to the digital transformation of the business. O professor notes that many companies have started to promote digitization recently and now should understand how they can use digital tools more efficiently and effectively. Perhaps, the entrepreneur feels the need to invest more; however, Barbero recommends that strong investments be carefully evaluated, because, in addition to the pandemic, there are economic and political effects that can impact companies and the market consumer. The priority points of planning for 2022 should be the preservation of cash, the preparation of short-term plans (eg quarterly) and the creation of a risk matrix. “Whatever you can do to keep the health and liquidity of cash is relevant, as we are not in a period of economic strength”, he advises. to plan for the short term and constantly reviewing the planning are measures that favor flexibility in moments of instability like the current one.

Barbero emphasizes that every business needs to have a risk matrix that allows the identification of events that can occur and impact the business. This is the case, for example, with the pandemic and its effects, with the performance of the economy and political instability. For each mapped occurrence, it is necessary to design an adequate response – thus, the company establishes paths to circumvent predicted adversities.

From the pessimistic to the optimistic scenario

The consultants, professors and authors of the book Practical Guide to Uncomplicated Strategic Planning and Management in turbulent environments (under editing), Heles Soares Júnior and Júlio Miranda say they do not perceive optimism on the part of businessmen, but, yes, a strong expectation. They endorse the guidance to exercise caution in regarding the plans, but clarify that this does not mean that companies should withdraw or ignore the long deadline. Even considering the repressed demand, which can stimulate activities such as tourism, events and some branches of commerce, it is important to keep in mind that the resumption of the market does not necessarily mean that things they will go back to the way they were. The consultants recall that the pandemic caused changes in consumption habits and continues accelerating transformations that impact all businesses and their production chains.

In this sense, the recommendation is to monitor the dynamics of the market and competition, the possibility of creating new markets, the evolution of technology, changes in labor relations, economic movements and political, among other aspects that affect the business environment.
Soares Jr. and Miranda emphasize that this is a context of complexity, which requires planning and management strategic by companies. Planning should be done for alternative scenarios: basic, optimistic and pessimistic. For each of these scenarios it is necessary to outline different lines of basic strategic actions. “It’s for This is why we defend that strategic plans should be trails, never trails”, they maintain.

The lessons learned between 2020 and 2021, based on the reality itself and the experiences of other organizations, they should not be forgotten, but definitely incorporated. Consultants understand that this is the moment. of “reinforcing and consolidating the changes made by companies, such as digital transformation, cost reduction, improvements in processes with the elimination of bottlenecks and rationalization of methods, etc.”. The good performance of the business also depends on the full alignment between the activities developed and the
strategic plans, based on a more dynamic management model.

New job settings

“Planning, focus, managerial dynamism and flexibility were never as relevant as at this time”,
argue Soares Jr. and Miranda. “We are face to face with Industry 4.0, which is highly technological and great appreciation of social, environmental and governance responsibility”.
Transition periods, like the current one, require different adaptation efforts. One of them refers to the market of Work. According to the study The Future of Work, published in October 2020 by the Economic Forum Worldwide, the pandemic accelerated the automation process, affecting countless professions.

The organization estimates that 85 million jobs will be impacted by the division of labor between people and machines until 2025, in 26 countries analyzed, including Brazil. The report points out that among professionals that remain in their functions, 50% will need requalification. “This will force companies to exercise important role in the education and training of the workforce”, they warn.

For this reason, the permanent alignment with the relevant audiences for the company gained even more importance and requires the reconciliation of short, medium and long term measures. The new job settings must consolidate the hybrid system, divided between face-to-face and remote. The risk is placed for companies and people with greater difficulty in adapting to this context.

Font: Revista Conmax